Report on scenarios to be elaborated for testing the incident evolution methodology

Purpose – The scope of Task 1.4, as described in the Dow, is ‘the identification of basic and representative originators leading to scenarios with cascading effects’.

Design/Methodology/approach – This initial objective was extended to a more comprehensive methodological report on all aspects related to the elaboration of the scenarios for the purpose of testing the IET. In doing so, more efficiency and a more coherent methodological approach on linked aspects was aimed at:

  • the identification of basic and representative originators for the selection of scenarios with cascading effects (initial scope of Task 1.4);
  • derivation of starting point and methodology for development of multiple timeline development (to be elaborated in Task 5.1);
  •  development of a methodology on how to create and use scenarios for testing the IET, including the definition of evaluation criteria for testing (scope of Task 5.2, resp. Task 4.3).

As much information as possible from previous CascEff Deliverables and ongoing Tasks was used as the basis for the selection of scenario’s (scenario definition), the methodological steps to define evaluation criteria for testing and as input for multiple timeline development. The CascEff input is completed for the guidelines on elaboration of scenarios and a test script with relevant information from literature and national practices.

Link to the report.