3. The Incident Evolution Methodology

The training material for this topic explains the CascEff methodology for modelling of cascading effect incidents. The objective of this methodology is to define cascade order, time and space aspects of the propagation, as well as helping the user to identify key decision points where the cascade could be broken with a maximal impact.

The Incident Evolution Methodology (IEM) builds on training topic 1 (cascading effects) and provides the user with a systematic approach to model cascading effects between systems. Through the application of the methodology, a risk based approach for emergency response planning and preparation enables consistent risk management of complex systems.
The model used allows the user to predict cascade orders based on system vulnerabilities and mitigation measures. The methodology also provides an objective approach towards identifying which points in the cascade should be considered in order to break the cascade with a maximal effect.

This training is of interest to emergency planners and incident commanders. Complimentary to existing incident management tools and models, the IEM provides you with a methodology specifically focused on predicting effects of an incident over time based on objective risk data. It enables the decision makers to identify the key decision points which have a maximum effect on reduction of impact of cascading effects both in the preparedness and response phases of emergency management. This leads to better and quantifiable decisions in risk management of complex systems.

The detailed description of the methodology is provided in the D4.2 report “Methodology for creating a model of an incident with cascading effects for future threats“, also available in the training material documentation.

The use of the CascEff IEM is subject to an Attribution ShareAlike license.

The CascEff incident evolution tool (IET) is  the software tool implementation of the IEM. More information about the IET can be found under “Tools“.

Photo: MSB


Presentation Incident Evolution Methodology (Powerpoint)

IEM Quick reference cards