Author Archives: Erika Hjelm

Cascading Effects Conference a success!

During two days approximately 120 persons attended the Cascading Effects Conference (March 16-17, 2017) in Brussels to discuss different aspects of cascading effects, especially if and how such effects can be modelled. The conference was organized by the five FP7 projects CascEff, CIPRNet, FORTRESS, PREDICT, and SnowBall. More information from the conference will be made available soon.

 

Joint final conference

The EU projects CascEff, FORTRESS, PREDICT, Snowball and CIPRNet are planning a Joint final conference on “Understanding, modelling and management of cascading effects in crises”. The conference will be held March 16-17, 2017 at BAO Congress Centre in Brussels. More information will come.

Modelling of physics in cascading effects

The objective of Task 2.5 is to investigate how computer modelling can be used as input to an Incident Evolution Tool (IET). In some situations the cascading effects depend on the physics and to fully understand the effect of incident management, also physical processes need to be modelled. Therefore, this task aims at modelling the necessary processes in order to support the simulated exercises in WP5 based on the physical effects identified in Task 2.3.

In total three scenarios are simulated within Task 2.5, two scenarios involved fire (Mont Blanc tunnel and wildland fire cases) and one scenario involved pollutant dispersion near a populated area. A detailed description of the numerical set-up used to model the scenarios is given and the results from the numerical simulations of the different test cases considered are analyzed. Based on the simulation results, valuable conclusions are drawn for each test case with regards to the viability of the use of numerical modelling as input for the IET to be developed within the project and for the simulated exercises to be performed within WP5.

Link to the report

 

Report on scenarios to be elaborated for testing the incident evolution methodology

Purpose – The scope of Task 1.4, as described in the Dow, is ‘the identification of basic and representative originators leading to scenarios with cascading effects’.

Design/Methodology/approach – This initial objective was extended to a more comprehensive methodological report on all aspects related to the elaboration of the scenarios for the purpose of testing the IET. In doing so, more efficiency and a more coherent methodological approach on linked aspects was aimed at:

  • the identification of basic and representative originators for the selection of scenarios with cascading effects (initial scope of Task 1.4);
  • derivation of starting point and methodology for development of multiple timeline development (to be elaborated in Task 5.1);
  •  development of a methodology on how to create and use scenarios for testing the IET, including the definition of evaluation criteria for testing (scope of Task 5.2, resp. Task 4.3).

As much information as possible from previous CascEff Deliverables and ongoing Tasks was used as the basis for the selection of scenario’s (scenario definition), the methodological steps to define evaluation criteria for testing and as input for multiple timeline development. The CascEff input is completed for the guidelines on elaboration of scenarios and a test script with relevant information from literature and national practices.

Link to the report.