Purpose – The scope of Task 1.4, as described in the Dow, is ‘the identification of basic and representative originators leading to scenarios with cascading effects’.

Design/Methodology/approach – This initial objective was extended to a more comprehensive methodological report on all aspects related to the elaboration of the scenarios for the purpose of testing the IET. In doing so, more efficiency and a more coherent methodological approach on linked aspects was aimed at:

• the identification of basic and representative originators for the selection of scenarios with cascading effects (initial scope of Task 1.4);
• derivation of starting point and methodology for development of multiple timeline development (to be elaborated in Task 5.1);
•  development of a methodology on how to create and use scenarios for testing the IET, including the definition of evaluation criteria for testing (scope of Task 5.2, resp. Task 4.3).

As much information as possible from previous CascEff Deliverables and ongoing Tasks was used as the basis for the selection of scenario’s (scenario definition), the methodological steps to define evaluation criteria for testing and as input for multiple timeline development. The CascEff input is completed for the guidelines on elaboration of scenarios and a test script with relevant information from literature and national practices.

Link to the report.

Three case studies were explored in order to develop a communication strategy that could be employed by key agencies in conjunction with members of the public during incidents that had the potential to generate cascading effects:

1) The floods in South-West England (December 2013 – February 2014);
2) The thunderstorm that hit the Pukkelpop music festival in Belgium (18 August 2011); and
3) The rioting in the town of Haren, in the Netherlands (21 September 2012), after thousands of young people gathered for a local girl’s birthday party advertised as ‘Project X Haren’.

The strategy was based on information gathered through a review of the literature on the role of the media in emergency management, an exploration of the communication strategies deployed by key agencies in each of these case studies, and the key findings from a critical thematic analysis of 41 semi-structured interviews conducted with key stakeholders between December 2014 and May 2015.

Link to the report.

The CascEff project aims to improve the emergency response in incidents that involve cascading effects, i.e. where system dependencies lead to impacts propagating from one system to other systems. An important basis for this improvement is knowledge about the nature, processes and patterns of cascading effects. One way to gain such knowledge is to study past events.

Link to the report.

The CascEff project started on April 1, 2014 and runs for 36 months. The project concerns modelling of dependencies and cascading effects for emergency management in crisis situations. The project aims to significantly improve the ability of Incident Commanders to manage complex incidents by improving our understanding of initiators, dependencies and key decision points through the use of the proposed Incident Evolution Tool.

Link to the report.

The CascEff-project aims to improve the emergency response in incidents that involve cascading effects, i.e. where system dependencies lead to impacts propagating from one system to other systems. An important basis for this is knowledge about the nature, processes and patterns of cascading effects.

Link to the report.